By Larry Schlesinger
Tuesday, 09 October 2012
Tuesday, 09 October 2012
The
capital cities of Australia’s resource states are leading the property market
recovery, according SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher.
Christopher
places Perth houses and units at 6.30 on the property clock, indicating the
market has just bottomed out and heading into an upswing, and Brisbane houses
and units at six o’clock, indicating the market has bottomed out.
His
assessment of the Perth market is based on falling listings and a tightening
rental market.
Perth
house and unit prices have also stopped falling, says Christopher.
In
its September stock-on-market report, SQM found that Perth online residential
listings declined by 3% to 17,517. Year-on-year they are down 14.6%, the
biggest decline of the mainland capital cities (excluding the much smaller
Darwin market).
SQM
also found that the Perth vacancy rate tightened from an already very low 0.7%
in July to 0.6% in August, with just 1,177 properties available for rent
(compard with more than 2,600 in Adelaide and nearly 12,000 in Melbourne).
Apart from Darwin (0.5%), Perth has the tightest rental market in Australia.
This
tightening vacancy rate resulted in median house rents increasing by $10 to
$450 per week over the August quarter, with weekly rents for units, apartments
and villas rising by $20 to $430 per week, according to the latest REIWA data.
Christopher
says Brisbane has bottomed out due to falling listings volumes and house prices
no longer falling.
According
to SQM Research, Brisbane online residential listings are down 8% year-on-year
to September, with the vacancy rate at a tight 1.5%
Investors
looking to get into the Sydney market at the bottom of its cycle may have
missed out, according to Christopher.
Christopher
has Sydney houses at seven o’clock on the property clock, with units slightly
further ahead at 7.30, indicating houses are well on their way to rebounding.
In
both the case of houses and units listings are falling with SQM recording 2.9%
fall in Sydney listings in September to be down 13.1% year-on-year to 30,408
properties for sale.
In
both house and unit markets he says evidence of a recovery can be seen in
rising Sydney auction clearance rates, which was 63% over the weekend.
However,
Sydney houses are not making a homogenous recovery, with prestige houses stuck
at four o’clock, according to Christopher, indicating they still have some way
to fall.
Sydney
units are slight further ahead of houses in the property cycle due to the
introduction of the $15,000 first-home buyer handout, which applies to new
homes, including apartments, marketed off the plan.
The
Melbourne property market (houses and units) is assessed as having some way to
go before bottoming out – at five o’clock on the property clock.
“Melbourne
listings are still elevated and are not falling," says Christopher.
“There
is some evidence of a rise in clearance rates, but no real evidence of a rise
on prices, he says.
SQM
has Melbourne online residential listings up 3.2% year-on-year to September to
51,564 properties listed for sale.
Adelaide
and Canberra are assessed as flat property markets and at the same point in the
property cycle as Melbourne (five o’clock).
In
the case of Adelaide, Christopher says that “listings are still elevated, yet
they are no longer rising at rapid rate.
“There
is no evidence yet of increased buyer demand and prices are flat.”
In
Canberra, apart from listings remaining high and prices flat, Christopher says
the “outlook is uncertain due to the federal budget”.
Darwin
is assessed as the only capital city market that has already rebounded (at nine
o’clock) and heading towards it its peak.
“There
has been a strong lift in Darwin house and unit prices starting in the first
half of this year.
“Stock
levels are falling rapidly. The rental market very tight,” he says.
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